Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, January 3rd

Friday’s bond market initially opened in positive territory but has since given back those gains after unfavorable economic news. Stocks are reacting to the data with gains of 99 points in the Dow and 124 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.56%), which with weakness late yesterday should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday increase Thursday, you should see only a minor increase this morning.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.56%

99

Dow

42,491

124

NASDAQ

19,405

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Concluding this week’s small number of economic reports was December’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 49.3 that exceeded forecasts and was higher than November’s 48.4. The increase means surveyed manufacturing executives felt business conditions were better last month than November. As a sign of economic strength, this report has to be labeled as bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Also worth noting are quite a few Fed-member speeches taking place over the next couple of days. There is one set for 11:00 AM ET today with Richmond Fed President Barkin and a TV appearance by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler at 4:00 PM ET this afternoon. They will be followed by a couple of weekend speeches by San Francisco region President Mary Daly and one by Governor Kugler. These are the first batch of speeches since last month’s FOMC meeting, so market traders will be looking for bits of information that will help predict the Fed’s future monetary policy plans. We could see a reaction to Mr. Barkin’s appearance later this morning or early afternoon if there are any surprises. The weekend speeches will come into play with Monday’s trading.

High

Unknown

Employment Situation

Next week is extremely busy with several economic reports set for release, including the almighty monthly governmental Employment report. In addition to the data, we will also get the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting, two Treasury auctions midweek and the Fed-member speeches with topics that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates. The week’s trading schedule will also be affected slightly by Thursday’s National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.

Medium

Unknown

Factory Orders

Activities begin Monday with a 9:15 AM speech by Fed Governor Lisa Cook in Michigan with a topic of Economic Outlook and Financial Stability, followed by the release of November’s Factory Orders report that is moderately important to rates. Look for details on all of next week’s scheduled events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.